# Econometric Event Studies

> Map 2nd and 3rd order economic impact. One event traced across firms, suppliers, sector peers, and policy reactions, every edge dated on the open web.

**URL:** https://nosible.com/econometric-event-studies

## Overview

For academic researchers and senior quants.

**Map 2nd and 3rd order economic impact.**

Most macro shocks propagate in three orders: the named entity moves first, suppliers and sector peers move next, regulators and consumers move after that.

Three orders of impact from one announcement, on tickers the headline never named.

Calls to action:
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- **See the research** → #evidence

## 01 · Three orders of propagation — One announcement. Three orders of impact.

The 1st order is the named entity in the headline. The 2nd order is its suppliers, sector counterparties, and currency-exposed peers. The 3rd order is the political reaction, the regulator's filing, the central-bank speech that follows.

## 02 · Ripple-effect papers · 2024–2025 — Recent papers map this propagation directly.

Recent papers refine first-order econometrics, trace propagation through supply and policy networks, and add LLM-based event extraction from the open web.

**// Index** — The top row refines the 1st-order design and identifies the shock. The bottom row covers 2nd-order propagation, the 3rd-order policy reaction, and the LLM step that extracts cause-and-effect edges from the open web.

### Papers

- **[FinRipple: Aligning Large Language Models with Financial Market for Event Ripple Effect Awareness](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23826)** — Xu et al., 2025, arXiv. Defines ripple-effect prediction as a formal benchmark and trains an LLM that propagates shocks across linked entities.
- **[Stock Price Responses to Firm-Level News in Supply Chain Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.06255)** — Inoue & Todo, 2024, arXiv. Firm-level open-web items, scored with FinBERT, propagate to supplier and client stock prices both before and after public disclosure dates.
- **[Connected for Better or Worse? The Role of Production Networks in Financial Crises](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34604)** — Miranda-Pinto, Rojas, Saffie & Silva, 2025, NBER. Production-network structure is the sufficient statistic that predicts Sudden Stop severity in emerging versus advanced economies.
- **[Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic Implications](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33953)** — Cacciatore & Candian, 2025, NBER. Upstream uncertainty travels through input-output linkages as a supply shock; downstream uncertainty travels as a demand shock.
- **[Rounding up the Effect of Tariffs on Financial Markets: Evidence from April 2, 2025](https://www.nber.org/papers/w34036)** — Benguria & Saffie, 2025, NBER. Cross-country event study of the April 2025 tariff, with 67 national markets responding by bilateral trade exposure.
- **[Global Networks, Monetary Policy and Trade](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33686)** — Kalemli-Ozcan, Soylu & Yildirim, 2025, NBER. The net inflation, output, and currency response to a tariff depends on the endogenous central-bank reaction function.
- **[Market Whiplash After the 2025 Tariff Shock: An Event-Targeted VAR Approach](https://www.bis.org/publ/work1282.htm)** — Pinter, Smets & Uslu, 2025, BIS. An event-targeted VAR separates the dominant tariff shock from offsetting announcements across equities, copper, and inflation expectations.
- **[The Macroeconomics of Narratives](https://www.nber.org/papers/w32602)** — Flynn & Sastry, 2024, NBER. Optimistic narratives extracted from 10-K filings expand real activity even when those narratives do not predict fundamentals.

**Field note:** "A single ticker is the headline. The second and third orders are the rest."

## 03 · One event, three orders — The 02 April 2025 US tariff schedule, traced across three orders.

A single dated announcement, traced order by order on public-record beats. Each column maps one order of propagation, each row marks one moment, and one ledger covers it on the open web in 95 languages.

### 1st · Named entity

The 1st-order hit. The names in the headline reprice on the print.

- **02 Apr 2025** — US Executive Order 14257 declares a national emergency and a reciprocal tariff schedule on imports from named partners.
- **03 Apr 2025** — Direct-import US equity baskets reprice into the close as the named first-order tax falls on landed-cost lines.
- **03 Apr 2025** — The Nikkei 225 closes down 2.77 percent on the schedule print, the largest Asia move on the day.

### 2nd · Suppliers and peers

The 2nd-order channel. Supplier, peer, and currency-exposed tickers move next.

- **03 Apr 2025** — The 25 percent tariff on imported cars takes effect, repricing European auto exporters and parts makers into the close.
- **03 Apr 2025** — Tokyo Electron trades down intraday on second-leg semiconductor supply-chain exposure to the new schedule.
- **03 Apr 2025** — The Hang Seng Index closes down 1.52 percent as China-exposed and Asia-supply-chain peers reprice.

### 3rd · Policy and politics

The 3rd-order reaction. Retaliation, regulation, and central-bank speech follow.

- **04 Apr 2025** — China's State Council Tariff Commission announces a 34 percent retaliatory tariff on all US goods, effective 10 April.
- **04 Apr 2025** — Federal Reserve Chair Powell tells the SABEW conference that tariffs are likely to raise inflation and slow growth.
- **09 Apr 2025** — The White House announces a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, and the S&P 500 closes up 9.5 percent on the day.

**// Source attribution:** each beat sits in the public record on the open web. Dates are the source-publication date.

## 04 · NOSIBLE WORLD · the event graph — The event graph behind the trace.

We index the open web in 95 languages, find every event, date it to the source-publication minute, normalise the entity and event taxonomy, and connect it into a graph. Thirty years of point-in-time history, in one normalised store that your panel queries directly.

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Events | 100M+ |
| Sources | 300K+ |
| Languages | 95 |
| Point-in-time | 30 years |

### Three-order cases

| Risk | Place | Date | Event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Trade Policy | US / ASEAN | 2025·04 | US reciprocal tariff schedule propagates from S&P importers to ASEAN suppliers to State Council retaliation in seven days. |
| Sanctions | Russia / Turkey | 2022·02 | EU sanctions on Russia reroute through Turkish intermediaries and reprice gas-exposed European utilities within the month. |
| Climate | India | 2023·08 | Monsoon flooding cuts input flows to Indian downstream firms; New Delhi adds a parboiled-rice export tax in the same month. |

## 05 · What you build — Map the 1st order. Trace the 2nd. Model the 3rd.

Builds your team wires straight into the existing panel. Each operates at a different order of impact, and they share one ledger.

- **§01 — Map the 1st order entity reaction** — Date every announcement to the source-publication minute. High-frequency identification on text-derived shocks. Coverage extends to central banks and finance ministries in 95 languages.
- **§02 — Trace 2nd order propagation** — Follow the shock through supplier links and sector counterparties. Every edge is timestamped on the open web. Build cumulative abnormal return panels at the network layer.
- **§03 — Model 3rd order policy response** — Catch the retaliation, the regulatory filing, the central-bank speech, the WTO complaint. Date each response to the source-publication minute and feed it as a continuous treatment in your second-stage design.

## 06 · Get started

**Talk to us about running three-order event studies on the NOSIBLE WORLD ledger.**

- **Start Trial** → https://nosible.com/start-trial

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