# Macro Risk Indicators

> 30 daily indices of geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty, and market stress, built on NOSIBLE WORLD from 100M events in 95 languages. Launching August 2026.

**URL:** https://nosible.com/macro-risk-indicators

**Status:** Launching August 2026 · not yet available. Pilot slots open now via the [trial hub](https://nosible.com/start-trial).

## Hero — Put the world's risk in your model

**Put the world's risk in your model.**

Geopolitical shocks, policy fights, and market stress are in the news before they are in prices. NOSIBLE Macro Risk Indicators turns that news into 30 daily risk indices your models can read.

CTAs:
- **Join the pilot** → [trial hub](https://nosible.com/start-trial)
- **See the 30 indicators** → [#indicators](https://nosible.com/macro-risk-indicators#indicators)

## §01 · The 30 indicators

What each one measures, why it matters, and the research behind it.

| # | Indicator | Scope | What it measures | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 01 | Geopolitical risk | global | War, terror, and conflict as a share of world coverage. The Fed's benchmark. | Geopolitics |
| 02 | Country geopolitical risk | per country | The same measure per country. Prices sovereign spreads, local rates, and FX. | Geopolitics |
| 03 | Bilateral tension | country pairs | Tension between any two countries: China-US, Russia-Ukraine, India-Pakistan. | Geopolitics |
| 04 | Oil-supply risk | global + per region | Conflict near oil regions, OPEC moves, and sanctions on the exporters of crude. | Geopolitics |
| 05 | Sanctions and export controls | per country | Sanctions, embargoes, and export controls, signed for escalation versus relief. | Geopolitics |
| 06 | Nuclear threat | country pairs | Nuclear threats and weapons tests. For tail hedges, gold, and Treasuries. | Geopolitics |
| 07 | Cyber risk | per company | State and criminal cyberattacks on firms and infrastructure, as they land. | Geopolitics |
| 08 | Terrorism and unrest | per country | Terror attacks, riots, and instability from the local press in 95 languages. | Geopolitics |
| 09 | Economic policy uncertainty | plus category cuts | The most-cited policy uncertainty index, rebuilt daily for any country. | Policy |
| 10 | Trade policy uncertainty | per country | Tariffs, deals, and disputes. Predicts next quarter's realised tariff rate. | Policy |
| 11 | Monetary policy uncertainty | per central bank | How unsure the world is about each central bank's next move. Rates volatility. | Policy |
| 12 | Fiscal uncertainty | shutdowns + debt ceiling | Budget fights, shutdowns, and debt-ceiling standoffs, signed stalemate or deal. | Policy |
| 13 | Bank-regulation uncertainty | plus bailouts | Bank supervision, capital rules, and bailout uncertainty. Spikes in every stress. | Policy |
| 14 | Climate policy uncertainty | per country | Climate rules, carbon pricing, and subsidies. Prices green-versus-brown assets. | Policy |
| 15 | Partisan conflict | per country | Lawmaker gridlock. A one-standard-deviation rise cuts investment 13 percent. | Policy |
| 16 | Migration policy | per country | Migration fear and migration-policy uncertainty across recipient countries. | Policy |
| 17 | Financial stress | global | Bank runs, liquidity freezes, and contagion, ahead of official stress indices. | Markets |
| 18 | Risk-on / risk-off | cross-asset | Net risk appetite across all world coverage. A daily cross-asset signal. | Markets |
| 19 | Recession nowcast | per country | Recession, layoff, and slowdown coverage mapped to output, ahead of the prints. | Markets |
| 20 | Inflation attention | per country | How loudly the world talks about prices. Attention moves inflation expectations. | Markets |
| 21 | Equity volatility tracker | 40 categories | The news flow that moves with the VIX, cut by driver. For volatility trades. | Markets |
| 22 | Hawk-dove sentiment | per central bank | Every central-bank speech scored hawkish or dovish, in its own language. | Markets |
| 23 | Commodity supply risk | per commodity | The validated oil-supply recipe applied to gas, wheat, copper, and gold. | Supply |
| 24 | Energy security | by region | Blackouts, pipeline threats, and gas cutoffs. European power and gas trades. | Supply |
| 25 | Food security | per country | Harvest failures, export bans, and famine risk from local-language coverage. | Supply |
| 26 | Supply-chain pressure | global | Port congestion, freight, and shortages. Leads the New York Fed's monthly gauge. | Supply |
| 27 | Pandemic and health risk | per country | Outbreak detection in local languages, before it reaches the English wires. | Supply |
| 28 | Sovereign distress | per country | Default, restructuring, and rescue narratives. For emerging-market credit. | Credit |
| 29 | Currency crisis | per currency | Devaluation, capital controls, and reserve stress. Flags carry unwinds early. | Credit |
| 30 | Firm-level political risk | per company | Political exposure attributed to named companies. For single-name overlays. | Credit |

Every indicator on the page carries three research citations (canonical paper, official index data page, and a supporting study). Highlights: Caldara & Iacoviello (AER 2022) for geopolitical risk, Baker, Bloom & Davis (QJE 2016) for policy uncertainty, Caldara et al (JME 2020) for trade policy uncertainty, Hassan et al (QJE 2019) for firm-level political risk.

## §02 · How every indicator is built

Four steps. No keyword lists. No black box.

1. **Every event is a vector.** Each of 100M events in NOSIBLE WORLD is stored as an embedding: a numeric representation of what the text says, in any language.
2. **Defined in sentences.** Each indicator is defined by a handful of plain-English anchor sentences. Events that match are in. No keyword lists, no per-article model calls.
3. **Weighted by coverage.** Each deduplicated event counts once, weighted by how many distinct publishers covered it, normalised by a trailing 12-month baseline.
4. **Signed, not just sized.** A paired uncertain-versus-resolved axis separates escalation from resolution. A keyword count scores a signed trade deal and a trade war the same way.

Method published in full:
- [An Embedding-Based Approach to Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainty](https://nosible.com/blog/an-embedding-based-approach-to-trade-and-economic-policy-uncertainty) — the Fed's TPU index rebuilt from 14.9M events with five anchor sentences, then extended to all of economic policy. Full anchor sets published.
- [Rebuilding the Geopolitical Risk Index from NOSIBLE World](https://nosible.com/blog/rebuilding-the-geopolitical-risk-index-from-nosible-world) — 13.2M events turned into the geopolitical risk benchmark, then cut by country, country pair, and oil supply. Every cut benchmarked.

## §03 · How well we match the official indices

Monthly correlation against each published index, reported next to how well the official versions agree with each other.

| Correlation | Indicator | Benchmark | Context |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0.87 | Trade policy uncertainty | vs the Fed's TPU, monthly levels | The two official versions agree at 0.96. On monthly changes we beat their bar: 0.82 vs 0.70. |
| 0.77 | Economic policy uncertainty | vs Baker-Bloom-Davis, US, monthly levels | The paper's own two US variants agree at 0.92. |
| 0.89 | Geopolitical risk | vs the Fed's AI-GPR, detrended levels | 0.75 on monthly changes. |
| 0.94+ | Country-level geopolitical risk | major actors, monthly levels | Iran 0.99, Israel 0.96, Ukraine 0.96, Russia 0.94. 76 countries above 0.60. |
| 0.97 | Oil-supply geopolitical risk | vs published oil-GPR, detrended | Middle East 0.95, Venezuela 0.96, Russia 0.91 by producer region. |

Every anchor set is published. Grade us against the index you already run.

## §04 · The same indices, without the lag

The published versions count keywords in a handful of English-language newspapers, once a month, with revisions. Ours read the whole web.

| Metric | Published indices | NOSIBLE Macro Risk Indicators |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Cadence | Monthly | 15 min |
| Languages | English | 95 |
| Method | Keywords | Embeddings |
| History | Revised | 30 years, point-in-time |

Built on NOSIBLE WORLD: 100M+ events, 300K+ sources, 95 languages, 30 years point-in-time.

## §05 · Get started

Launching August 2026. Daily feeds, point-in-time history, published anchors. Pilot slots open now.

- **Join the pilot** → [trial hub](https://nosible.com/start-trial)