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For event-driven quants and academic backtesters
The factor zoo is saturated.
Six hundred-plus published factors. Two-thirds fail at a t-stat of 1.96. Eight in ten fail under multiple-testing discipline.
Carhart momentum. Fama-French five. Quality. Low volatility. Defensive. Profitability. Investment. Liquidity. The published library is fixed. Replication studies converge: most factors do not survive out-of-sample.
One library. Crowded by replication. Decays on publication.
Many dimensions. Open-ended supply. No fixed inventory to crowd.
// Fixed library on the left. Open-ended supply on the right.
The first row benchmarks factor saturation and backtest methodology. The second is recent LLM-on-text work for event-driven alpha.
01 to 03: factor-zoo saturation. 04 to 05: backtest methodology. 06 to 08: LLM-on-text work for event-driven alpha.
Factors saturate because the published library is finite. Researchers mine the same eight decades of CRSP across the same characteristics. Every new sanctions wave, tariff list, central-bank pivot or supply-chain shock adds to the event supply.
Tomorrow's events are not in today's archive. New sanctions, tariffs and central-bank pivots add to the supply each week.
Every event has a verified publication minute. There is no point-in-time ambiguity to mine away after the fact.
First disclosure happens in 95 languages. The English wire usually arrives twenty minutes later, by which time the move is in.
Events are dated to first public disclosure. Revisions are preserved alongside the original. The same query run today and six months from now returns the same result from a frozen snapshot.
UK votes to leave the EU; sterling and risk assets repriced in hours.
Silicon Valley Bank collapses inside 48 hours of the first public disclosure.
Yen carry unwind drives a global cross-asset selloff in a single session.
Wire NOSIBLE WORLD into your existing event-study framework, factor library, or bias-diagnostic stack.
Anchor every retrieval to the verified publication minute. Cross-validate with purged folds and defend the result against any referee.
Trade triggers fire on first public disclosure across 95 languages. The English wire usually arrives twenty minutes later, by which time the move is in.
Replay your strategy across frozen historical snapshots. Pin the API version and reproduce the same audit a year from now.
A backtest is reproducible only if its snapshot is frozen.
Run event-driven backtests on NOSIBLE WORLD.
Talk to us about API access and historical snapshots.
