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For academic researchers and senior quants
Most macro shocks propagate in three orders: the named entity moves first, suppliers and sector peers move next, regulators and consumers move after that.
Three orders of impact from one announcement, on tickers the headline never named.
The 1st order is the named entity in the headline. The 2nd order is its suppliers, sector counterparties, and currency-exposed peers. The 3rd order is the political reaction, the regulator's filing, the central-bank speech that follows.
Recent papers refine first-order econometrics, trace propagation through supply and policy networks, and add LLM-based event extraction from the open web.
The top row refines the 1st-order design and identifies the shock. The bottom row covers 2nd-order propagation, the 3rd-order policy reaction, and the LLM step that extracts cause-and-effect edges from the open web.
A single ticker is the headline. The second and third orders are the rest.
A single dated announcement, traced order by order on public-record beats. Each column maps one order of propagation, each row marks one moment, and one ledger covers it on the open web in 95 languages.
The 1st-order hit. The names in the headline reprice on the print.
The 2nd-order channel. Supplier, peer, and currency-exposed tickers move next.
The 3rd-order reaction. Retaliation, regulation, and central-bank speech follow.
// Source attribution: each beat sits in the public record on the open web. Dates are the source-publication date.
We index the open web in 95 languages, find every event, date it to the source-publication minute, normalise the entity and event taxonomy, and connect it into a graph. Thirty years of point-in-time history, in one normalised store that your panel queries directly.
US reciprocal tariff schedule propagates from S&P importers to ASEAN suppliers to State Council retaliation in seven days.
EU sanctions on Russia reroute through Turkish intermediaries and reprice gas-exposed European utilities within the month.
Monsoon flooding cuts input flows to Indian downstream firms; New Delhi adds a parboiled-rice export tax in the same month.
Builds your team wires straight into the existing panel. Each operates at a different order of impact, and they share one ledger.
Date every announcement to the source-publication minute. High-frequency identification on text-derived shocks. Coverage extends to central banks and finance ministries in 95 languages.
Follow the shock through supplier links and sector counterparties. Every edge is timestamped on the open web. Build cumulative abnormal return panels at the network layer.
Catch the retaliation, the regulatory filing, the central-bank speech, the WTO complaint. Date each response to the source-publication minute and feed it as a continuous treatment in your second-stage design.
Talk to us about running three-order event studies on the NOSIBLE WORLD ledger.
